Saturday, December 12, 2009
Will 65.00 NZD/JPY Resistance Hold?
Since the beginning of 2009, the NZD/JPY has seen a relatively steady uptrend up having begun down near 44.0 until topping out around 69.50 toward the end of October. Prices have since dropped rather aggressively hitting a low of about 60.0 near the end of November (breaking through the 2009 bull trend line the process). Over the past couple weeks, price have rebounded and are currently testing near-term resistance near 65.0 (established earlier this week). Although this choppy action makes overall trend more difficult to determine, we still may have a solid shorter-term selling opportunity in the form of a double-top bearish Gartley pattern if current 65.0 resistance fails and prices move up to around 67.0 (see chart below). Assuming this pattern completes and no warning signs (gaps and/or long bars prior to entry) are present, we may see at least a temporary dip down to initial fib support of the projected CD leg near 65.0 (38.2% of projected CD leg) followed by 64.0 (61.8% of CD). The key will be for price to remain above point C (62.0) before reaching the projected entry of 66.80; otherwise, this specific double-top Gartley setup is no longer valid.
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