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Monday, January 4, 2010

U.K. Mortgage Approvals, PMI Manufacturing Advance Amid Stabilizing Economy

Overview
U.K. Mortgage approvals in November climbed to 60,500 from a revised 57,700 the month prior, with expectations of 58,000, marking its highest level since March 2008, further adding signs that the economy is stabilizing from the worst recession since World War II.

Meanwhile, the regions purchaser manufacturing index which is based on a survey of over 600 business executives in the region climbed to 54.1 in December from 51.8 the previous month amid economists forecast of 52.0, posting the strongest rise in more than two years, according to a survey by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply and Markit Economics.

Breakdown
Taking a deeper look into the report, the Bank of England stated gross mortgage lending was 12.5 billion pounds in November, the most it has been since January 2009, while net consumer credit tumbled by 376 million pounds during the month amid the drop in overdraft and personal loans offset higher credit card borrowing. The fall in consumer credit was led by other lenders plunging 1,211 million, while banks added 1,702 million to taper the decline. At the same time, the final reading of the M4 money supply which the bank uses to assess the effectiveness of its asset purchases pushed 0.1% higher in November and rose 9.3% from a year ago.

Forecast
The rise in manufacturing and mortgage approvals have started the U.K. off with a good start this year, and with the central bank likely to maintain its program of purchasing bonds with its 200 billion pound newly-created money, policy makers are anticipated to keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5% as their inflation outlook remains unchanged despite recent global news. After release of the data, the GBP/USD leapt 43 pips in the first ten minutes and later went onto reach an intraday high of 1.6243, climbing a net 82 pips subsequent to the data announcement.

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