EUR USD UNLIKELY TO REVERSE DOWNTREND UNTIL SOVEREIGN DEBT ISSUES ARE RESOLVED

The EUR USD traded all over the intraday charts while experiencing a choppy two-sided trade throughout today’s session. Volatility and indecision could be the theme this week as traders are unlikely to make up their minds about reversing this market to the upside until a resolution is reached regarding the sovereign debt issues in the Euro Region. Continue to look for volatility, highlighted by directionless trading until the European Central Bank, European Union or International Monetary Fund offers a viable solution to Greece’s fiscal problems.

The U.S. Dollar finished mixed in a day highlighted by volatility and indecision. Traders could not make up their minds after news regarding the fiscal problems in Greecefailed to instill confidence to the markets. Some traders feel that a resolution will be reached which may involve aid or stronger assurances that Greece will strictly follow its newly proposed budget.  Others feel that the Dollar is taking a breather before the next leg up.

Volatility and choppiness also affected the British Pound. Besides the weak economy, investors had to deal with the possibility that the U.K. will suffer the same fate as Portugal,Spain and Greece and have its debt rating reduced because of its huge budget deficit. Furthermore, news that the June election could result in neither party receiving a majority also hurt the British Pound. 

The USD JPY was little changed at the finish.  Today’s trading range was the smallest of the year and was inside Friday’s range. This pattern suggests impending volatility. This market could shift quickly to the upside if risk aversion returns to the markets. Budget problems in Europe, the U.K. and the United States may encourage traders to seek the safety of the lower yielding Asian currencies.

The USD CHF finished higher and inside of Friday’s range. The current trade is being determined by the movement in the Euro. A weaker Euro will increase the chances of a Swiss Bank intervention, thereby strengthening the Dollar versus the Swiss Franc. A short-covering rally in the Euro will pressure the USD CHF.

Dovish comments from Bank of Canada deputy governor Duguay helped drive the USD CAD higher. On Monday, he reiterated that interest rates will hold steady until at least the end of the second quarter. Furthermore, he emphasized that a weaker Canadian Dollar scenario is necessary to keep the economic recovery on course. Stronger gold and crude oil should have helped to pressure the USD CAD, but it looks as if weaker equity markets exerted a larger influence on this currency pair.

The AUD USD and NZD USD felt downside pressure throughout the New York session while trading inside of Friday’s ranges. Technically, these markets are poised to move higher following Friday’s closing price reversal bottom. Unless demand for higher risk assets increases, these markets will resume their downtrends and negate the counter-trend reversal bottom formation.