NEWS & ANALYSIS

2PM  Greenback Edges Higher 2PM  Jobs Data Disappoints, USD Edges Up 2PM  USD Edges Up Ahead of Jobs 1PM  Dollar Edges Higher

EUR/USD: Euro extends recovery to levels below 1.5100

EUR/USD declined from 1.5145 year to date high found support 1.4828 on Friday's early European session, and the pair's bounce has extended during Monday's Asian session reaching levels at 1.5085 session high. 

At the moment of writing the Euro trades at 1.5050; 0.30% above its day-opening price, with next resistance level at 1.5085 session high, and above here, 1.5100 and 1.5120. On the downside, support levels lie at 1.5025, and below here, 1.5000 and 1.4965 session low.

EUR/GBP has remained trading in a range from 0.9070 to 0.9100 during Monday's Asian session, consolidating after peaking on Friday at 0.9135 one-month high. Resistance levels lie at 0.9100/05 and 0.9135. Support levels are 0.9060/70 and 0.9040/45.

Brazil's Real Down on Dubai World Debt

The Brazilian currency was one of the multiples affected by a Dubai debt payment delay, setting the emergent market real to the third consecutive losing week versus the greenback.

Dubai World, a government owned investment company affirmed yesterday that its debt payments will be delayed, causing a risk off session today in currency markets, affecting mostly commodity exporter and emergent markets currency, forcing the real down as it fall in both categories.

USD/BRL traded at 1.7495 as of 17:16 GMT from a closing price of 1.7255 yesterday.

~TopForexNews.com

Dow Closes the Week Down 154 Points

The Dow closes early today as the traders start an early weekend with their families. The Dow closed down 154 points.  This sent the dollar a bit higher but activity has died down quite a bit.  The S & P is down 19 points today.  The Nasdaq is down 37.6 points. Oil is down $2.20.

Japanese Yen Ignores Intervention Threat, Soars to 14 Year High Against US Dollar

The Japanese Yen soared to a 14-year high against the US dollar despite direct government warnings of intervention against ‘abnormal’ currency moves. Further volatility looks likely ahead as liquidity thins out ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday.

Key Overnight Developments

• Bank of Japan May Resume Buying Corporate Debt, Meeting Minutes Show
• Japan’s Fujii Says Government Must Act Against ‘Abnormal’ Currency Moves
• Australian Business Investment Unexpectedly Tumbles in the Third Quarter

Critical Levels



The overall result of a volatile overnight session saw the Euro retrace some of its US-session gains, trading down as much as 0.2% against the US Dollar. The British Pound traded sideways in a choppy range near the 1.67 level.

Finding a Forex Broker That Won't Rip You Off

At the best of times, Forex currency trading can be a risky business with a huge potential for profit or loss. I have seen the best and the worst that the forex market has to offer, the dizzying highs of large wins, and the gut wrenching lows of people going bust.
You might be a Forex trader yourself, or maybe you are just curious about how Forex markets work, whomever you are, you need to learn how to seperate the legit Forex brokers from the scam merchants. The internet has a great deal of genuine Forex dealers offering quality services, it is also unfortunately infected with just as many thieves dressed up as companies who will gladly take your money and then dissapear. This fear of being taken advantage of puts a lot of people off the idea of trading Forex, this shouldn't be the case.
Now there are a few key differences between stock markets and Forex markets that you are going to have to learn:
1. Forex has no centralized exchange house.
2. Forex trading is 24/7.
3. Forex is a largely unregulated market.
Looking at that list, it kind of seems that the Forex market is akin to a wild west town full of outlaws and gunslingers. In this market there is no one to complain to, no one who will hold your hand. So how can you find the genuine dealers amid all the garbage? Do not trust any broker whose reputation cannot be confirmed, and whose company is not tied to the Forex market.
The attraction of the Forex market can be overwhelming. The scent of huge profits often overpower the common sense of the average person. They enter eagerly, just waiting to invest their life savings.Lying in wait are the scammers with huge promises, they capture the new investors money, and suddenly dissapear.
The good news is, is that many genuine Forex brokers do actually exist. Easy-Forex, Oanda, and many more have proven track records that justify their positions in the market. Usually if a company is small, has no affiliation to Forex or a financial institution, then stay away. Also a word on looking for reviews about brokers online. You can find honest reviews on Forex brokers online, however there seems to be a habit of late of competing Forex companies, and/or traders engaging in negative marketing of each other. Dig deeper and you will usually find an honest answer.
So remember:
1. Validate the companies reputation.
2. Make sure they are tied to the forex legitimately.
3. If the company is small and unheard of, stay away.
4. Finally if the broker has a proven online track record, a legitimate financial institution affiliation, and a few good reviews, give them a try.
My ultimate advice is, if unsure, invest the smallest amount you can, and find out for yourself. This is how I usually used to find brokers, and it worked for me.

Global Stocks Slide, Dollar Gains on Economy Fears

Global stocks slid and the U.S. dollar rose on Friday as investors cut their exposure to risky assets amid signs of an anemic U.S. economic recovery.

Investors sought safe havens ahead of a holiday-shortened week in the United States and in anticipation of the year-end period, which can prove to be volatile.

Oil fell below $77, weighed by the stronger dollar, and falling stock prices raised worries about the economy and the outlook for energy demand.

Most U.S. Treasuries prices retreated as traders cut prices ahead of the auction of $118 billion next week. But demand for short-term debt before year's end pushed yields on the two-year note below 0.68 percent, their lowest since last December.

Yields on short-dated Treasury bills pushed below zero as investors clamored for low-risk investments on bets central banks will hold rates at ultra-low levels for a long time.

"People are getting out of risk, getting into Treasuries for the year-end, everybody is parking money," said James Combias, head of government bond trading at Mizuho Securities USA in New York.

U.S. gold futures ended higher for a sixth straight session despite the dollar's rise in a late session rally that could bode well for next week, traders said.

Equity markets around the world fell as investors took profits as the end of 2009 approaches. MSCI's all-country world index has gained more than 70 percent from March lows, and investors are leery of any signs of weakness as they seek to justify further advances in equity prices.

"It's been a very good year for a lot of people, and it makes sense that players are going to square up positions today ahead of the U.S. holiday and month-end," said Michael Woolfolk, strategist at BNY Mellon in New York.

U.S. markets will close next Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, while Monday marks a national holiday in Japan.

Worse-than-expected quarterly results from computer maker Dell Inc and homebuilder D.R. Horton helped push U.S. stocks lower in the third straight negative session for Wall Street.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 14.28 points, or 0.14 percent, at 10,318.16. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 3.52 points, or 0.32 percent, at 1,091.38. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 10.78 points, or 0.50 percent, at2,146.04.

For the week, the Dow rose 0.5 percent, the broad market S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent and the technology-rich Nasdaq slipped1 percent.

A decline in technology shares is problematic, and "not a sign of a healthy market," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial in Shelton, Connecticut.

"We're not writing the obituary for this market, but it is consolidating, getting far more careful. It is prudent to take some money and some risk off the table," Krosby said.

An absence of fresh economic news made many markets choppy. Investors reacted to a wave of speculation about the risk of a default on Ukraine's sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed debt, despite no new development to trigger the sudden fright.

Gold for December delivery settled up $4.90 at $1,146.80 an ounce in New York. The dollar rose against a basket of major currencies, with the U.S. Dollar Index up 0.42 percent at 75.606.

The euro fell 0.39 percent at $1.486, and against the yen, the dollar fell 0.09 percent at 88.95.

The dollar is down some 14 percent since mid-March as signs of a global recovery prompted investors to favor higher-yield currencies and assets. Expectations for record low U.S. interest rates well into 2010 have also hurt the greenback.

Commodity prices also fell as investors have scoured economic data for signs of a recovery that would boost global energy demand.

"Oil is clearly still tied to broader financial markets and seeing losses due to a stronger dollar and a drop in stock prices," said Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down 6/32 in price to yield 3.36 percent.

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks traded outside Japan fell 0.7 percent, and Japan's Nikkei index slid 0.5 percent.

Canadian Dollar to Tumble Further?

The Canadian dollar is ending this week’s session as the worst in more than two months as stocks and commodities, extremely influential to determine the rates and sentiment for the loonie dropped, setting the North American currency losing streak further down.
In a strong risk averse session where safe refuge currencies like the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen were the best performers, the Canadian dollar weakened not only against those, but versus a number of other main traded currencies, due to its highly commodities and equities-linked profile, that was impacted today as the crude oil fell further following stocks around the world, that specially in Asia, did not manage to pare yesterday’s losses. The Canadian dollar has been moving away from parity versus its U.S. counterpart after the national central bank stressed that a strong currency could be an obstacle for the economic recovery, and now, stocks and commodities are also providing support for the greenback to advance versus the loonie.
Analysts relate directly this week’s stocks performance to the loonie’s decline, indicating that also the oil’s back down after touching $80 a barrel earlier this week was another negative factor that pushed the Canadian currency to its sharpest losing streak in months, which may continue as long as stocks remain bearish.
USD/CAD traded at 1.0719 as of 19:37 GMT from a previous rate of 1.0633

Gold, Oil Force Canadian Dollar UP

The Canadian dollar continued to trade high maintaining yesterday’s gains versus the U.S. dollar as gold reached a record high, raising attractiveness for Canadian commodities.
The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is often referred to, continued to trade near a four week high versus its U.S. counterpart as the oil, one of the main Canadian exports to the U.S. climbed beyond $80 a barrel, in a day that U.S. posted weak construction industry data.
USD/CAD traded at 1.0526 as of 17:28 GMT from yesterday’s rate of 1.0595.

Dollar Advances on Stocks Weak Performance

The dollar gained versus most of the 16 main traded currencies today as speculations surged that current levels for stocks are not backed by fundamental evidences, forcing equities down and bringing investors to purchase Treasury bonds to protect their portfolios.
Refuge currencies had the best performance today as most equities markets in Asia and Europe tumbled, attracting traders to inject capital towards safety, providing support for the greenback and the yen to extend gains from yesterday. Despite the dollar’s good performance versus most higher-yielding currencies, the greenback is facing its fourth consecutive week losing to the yen, as the interest rate outlook in the U.S. remains less optimistic than the one expected from the Bank of Japan, helping the yen to be the top refuge currency at the moment, as the Swiss Franc is losing its attractiveness due speculations regarding future regulations in the country’s financial system.
As the year is ending a number of traders are repatriating assets and giving up, to some extent, riskier investments, favoring the U.S. dollar who had a rather positive week compared to the previous ones, where risk appetite was dominant most of the time. There is a significant chance that the greenback will be trading around $1.50 versus the euro until the end of the year.
EUR/USD traded at 1.4847 as of 17:52 GMT from a previous price of 1.4912. USD/JPY traded at 88.99 from almost the same rate in the intraday.

Forex: GBP/USD fails to hold above 1.6500

The Pound failed to hold above 1.6500 against the Dollar and fell to 1.6470 after peaking at 1.6533. Currently trades at 1.6480/85, 1.10% below today’s opening price. To the downside the next support lies at 1.6450 and below at 1.6400/05 (Nov 4 lows). The pair is losing most of the gains achieved during the American session.

GBP traded sharply lower pressured new concerns about the UK budget outlook and sell stops triggered on the break of 1.6500. Officials at the Confederation of British Industries (CBI) are calling on the UK government take aggressive steps to reduce the budget deficit. GBP is negative as GBP trades below 1.6500. Expect near-term support at 1.6400 the November 3rd low with resistance at 1.6725 for November 19th high.

The Dollar Rises as U.S. Economic Outlook Looks Bleak and Investors Go For Safety

The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency increased 0.6 percent to 75.328.

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	GBP/USD	USD/CHF
Resistance	1.5270(M) 1.5096(M) 1.5065(M)	90.40(M) 89.93(M) 89.74(M)	1.7200(M) 1.7105(M) 1.7045(M)	1.0260(M) 1.0200(M) 1.0145(M)
Support	1.4940(M) 1.4880(M) 1.4825(M)	88.35(M) 88.01(M) 87.11(M)	1.6752(M) 1.6624(M) 1.6624(M)	1.0030(S) 1.0015(M) 0.9872(M)

The greenback advanced versus the euro for the first time in three days and the yen increased as U.S. industrial production rose in October less than economists forecast, discouraging demand for higher-yielding assets. “The market is waiting for economic fundamentals to confirm the risk rally hasn’t gone too far,” said Sacha Tihanyi, a currency strategist at Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto. “A lot of currencies are still flirting with this year’s highs. There’s limited risk-reward at these valuations.” The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency’s value against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc, increased 0.6 percent to 75.328. The gauge touched 74.679 yesterday, the lowest level since August 2008, even after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in New York that the central bank is “attentive” to changes in the dollar’s value and its policy “will help ensure that the dollar is strong.” The EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.4870 as of 20:22pm, GMT with a bullish trend.

The British Pound rose against the euro on Tuesday after a jump in UK inflation stoked speculation the Bank of England may be nearing the end of its quantitative easing program. The pound reversed initial gains against a broadly stronger dollar, which climbed on safe-haven demand, but the UK currency was supported after BoE policymaker Andrew Sentance said the UK economy was moving towards recovery. Government data on Tuesday showed British consumer price inflation rose to 1.5 percent year-on-year in October, in line with the consensus forecast, from a five-year low of 1.1 percent in September. The data is unlikely to cause undue concern to BoE policymakers, who have already penciled in a sharp rise in near-term inflation, but analysts said sterling would become increasingly sensitive to any evidence of a pick-up in prices. "The data was only slightly higher than expectations, but it was sufficient to keep sterling happy," said Adam Cole, global head of currencies at RBC in London. EUR/GBP is currently trading at $1.6815 as of 20:59pm, GMT with bearish Trend.

Canada’s currency depreciated to the lowest level in more than a week as investors lost appetite for higher-yielding assets, pushing down global stocks and lifting the U.S. dollar. The loonie trimmed losses as crude oil, the nation’s biggest export, erased a decline and rose before a report tomorrow forecast to show U.S. fuel supplies declined last week. Gold futures were little changed after falling earlier. Canada’s consumer price index likely increased 0.1 percent in October from a year earlier, after four straight monthly declines, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 22 economists. The USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.0514 as of 21:08pm, GMT with a bearish trend.

Canadian Dollar Deepens Losing Streak

It has not been a favorable day for the Canadian dollar as stocks went down globally, the crude oil, one of the nation’s main export tumbled, and more risk averse traders opted for the safety of Canada’s counterpart currency in the United States. The Canadian dollar is facing one of the sharpest losing streaks in months during the past two days as appeal for the commodity and stocks linked currency was affected in a rather pessimism day in currency markets. Canada is one of the main oil suppliers for the U.S. and after touching $80 a barrel this week, the commodity tumbled impacting immediately the loonie’s outlook, that accentuated its negative performance as a manufacturing reported indicated improved conditions in the U.S., decreasing even further attractiveness for the Canadian dollar, which has been one of the biggest losers in today’s session.
A predominantly risk averse session is most often not favorable for the Canadian currency, according to analysts. Not only the oil tumble, but risk is off in markets today, making traders to escape from high-yielding investments in order to protect their portfolios betting on papers in the U.S. and Japan, the best bets in times of uncertainty.
USD/CAD traded at 1.0678 as of 15:33 GMT from a previous rate of 1.0527 yesterday. CAD/JPY fell to 83.10 from 84.83.

Swiss Franc Drops on Financial Regulations

The Swiss currency lost against most of the 16 main traded currencies as speculations suggests that the country is likely to tighten its financial regulations, decreasing attractiveness for the franc.
The franc used to be, together with the U.S. dollar and the yen, a currency considered as a top refuge, but today, after Swiss National Bank officials statements that regulations may be tightened in the country emerged, due to the financial sector’s dimensions in the country, the franc fell versus most of the main currencies.
USD/CHF traded at 1.0133 as of 20:21 GMT from 1.0102 yesterday.

Dollar Down on Interest Rates Speculations

The dollar fell today versus several
higher-yielding currencies after speculations from Fed key-members suggested that interest rates in the country may remain at a record low for an extended period, declining attractiveness for the U.S. currency since investors can opt for higher returns in assets overseas.
After Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard affirmed that interest rates in the United States may not start to be hiked until the beginning of 2012, foreign-exchange markets reacted instantly to such declaration pushing the dollar rates down versus the euro, paring previous gains for the greenback and also losing versus its Canadian counterpart, with a better rates hikes prospect for 2010. The Chilean currency extended its record high even further versus the greenback, in an extremely long winning streak that the peso to the highest price in almost 16 months.
Most of analysts remain rather unmotivated regarding the future of the U.S. dollar, as public debt remains high in the country and several other reasons are likely to slow down the recovery in the country compared to other wealthy nations, adding to the pessimism brought today by Bullard’s statements. The dollar is likely to remain under pressure, for an undetermined amount of time.
EUR/USD traded at 1.4943 as of 15:11 GMT from a previous rate of 1.4826 yesterday. USD/JPY remained in neutrality trading at 89.19.

Gold, Oil Force Canadian Dollar Up

The Canadian dollar continued to trade high maintaining yesterday’s gains versus the U.S. dollar as gold reached a record high, raising attractiveness for Canadian commodities. The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is often referred to, continued to trade near a four week high versus its U.S. counterpart as the oil, one of the main Canadian exports to the U.S. climbed beyond $80 a barrel, in a day that U.S. posted weak construction industry data.
USD/CAD traded at 1.0526 as of 17:28 GMT from yesterday’s rate of 1.0595.

Mexican Peso Advances as Rates Won't Be Cut

The Mexican peso had a positive performance today versus the greenback as interest rates are unlikely to have further cuts, attracting investors to inject capital in the North American country.
The peso benefited today from a rally in crude oil rates, that crossed the $80 line per barrel in New York, raising appeal for the Mexican currency since the country is one of the main fossil energy suppliers for the United States.
USD/MXN traded at 12.98 as of 17.37 GMT from an opening rate of 13.03 today

About Forex

What is the Forex? The Foreign Exchange Market, also referred to as the "Forex" or FX market, is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily average turnover of well over US$1 trillion -- 30 times larger than the combined volume of all U.S. equity markets. Unlike other financial markets, the forex market has no physical location or central exchange. It is an over-the-counter market where buyers and sellers including banks, corporations, and private investors conduct business. A true 24-hour market, currency trading begins each day in Sydney, and moves around the globe as the business day begins in each financial center, first to Tokyo, London, and New York.the unmatched liquidity and around-the-clock global activity make forex the ideal market for active traders.